What could Mexico cartel violence mean for World Cup?

The Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) drug cartel – one of the country’s most powerful and feared criminal organisations – has engaged in gun shootouts with the Mexican military, blocked roads and burned vehicles in response to the killing of its leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, better known as ‘El Mencho’, in an army operation.

Violence began in the central-western Jalisco state – where a code red security situation has been declared – and has now spread to at least a dozen more regions, with videos posted online showing gunmen patrolling streets and smoke billowing over cities.

Guadalajara, capital city of Jalisco and home to more than a million people, is scheduled to host four matches at this summer’s tournament. Another five are scheduled in Mexico City, and four in Monterrey.

“When you push down on the cartels you do get pushback – the danger is that it can be very difficult to manage a security situation that spirals out of control,” says Javier Eskauriatza, assistant professor of criminal law at the University of Nottingham.

The power vacuum created by El Mencho’s killing could lead to a period of instability and further conflict as contenders vie to replace him.

“In general the cartels have an economic interest in making sure the World Cup is peaceful,” Dr Eskauriatza adds.

“Yes they pay off politicians and local police forces, but they also buy restaurants and own hotels. They are part of the economic system.

“It is useful for them if Brits, Americans, and others go to Mexico, spend their money and have a good time.”

Mexico has been under increased political pressure to take action against cartels in the past year.

“This response is not unique but is very serious and very high scale,” says Jon Benjamin, UK ambassador to Mexico between 2021 and 2024.

“President Trump has designated the cartels as terrorist organisations and Mexico has already handed over dozens of cartel figures to them. The Trump factor is very important in what is happening.”