Four years on, Russia’s war in Ukraine has transformed conflict and shattered global security

This disruption is relentless, and can be hard to catalogue, but let us begin with diplomacy. US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of decades of norms in negotiation – the over-laden formats of red lines and agendas, that for decades have been the mechanisms of how peace begins – marked a new, disruptive approach. It should be judged not by how much it eviscerated the established order, but by results alone.

And at present, those results are scant. A red carpet for Putin, who faces a war crimes indictment, in Alaska. Some tough sanctions on Russian oil. Two patchy, short ceasefires limited to energy infrastructure. Emotional rollercoasters for baffled European allies. And the persistent drumbeat of threats against Kyiv if it does not compromise. But no peace in 24 hours, as Trump once boasted – or in 100 days, or even in a year.

Drones revolution