‘Watershed’: How Saudi-Pakistan defence pact reshapes region’s geopolitics

The deal reflects the Gulf’s anxieties as US credibility wanes after Israel’s attack on Doha. But it affects India, too.

Islamabad, Pakistan – A beaming Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – welcomed with Saudi F-15 fighter jets, a red carpet, and full royal protocol – joined Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday to sign a “strategic mutual defence agreement” (SMDA).

Observers say it is a landmark moment in the decades-old alliance between the two nations whose ties stretch back nearly eight decades.

 at the Royal Court in Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh was witnessed by senior officials from Saudi Arabia, the custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, alongside representatives from Pakistan, the Muslim world’s only nuclear power.

The deal comes at a critical moment. Regional politics have been upended by two years of Israeli aggression – including its war on Gaza and strikes on neighbouring states – capped by last week’s Israeli attack on Doha, Qatar’s capital, which borders Saudi Arabia.

But it also comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, after a short but intense conflict in May in which they struck each other’s military bases over four days, taking South Asia to the brink of a full-fledged war between nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the agreement with Saudi Arabia reflects the “shared commitment” of both nations to strengthen security and promote regional peace, while also pledging to “strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression”.

Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, described the pact as a “watershed” for both countries.

“Pakistan previously maintained mutual defence treaties with the United States during the Cold War, but they crumbled by the ’70s. Even with China, despite extensive defence cooperation, Pakistan lacks a formal mutual defence pact,” Mir told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, said the deal could serve as a template for Pakistan to engage in similar bilateral defence cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, two key Gulf partners.

Historic bonds and military cooperation

Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to recognise Pakistan after its independence in August 1947. In 1951, the two nations signed a “Treaty of Friendship,” laying the foundation for decades of strategic, political, military, and economic cooperation.

Over the years, Pakistani armed forces have deployed to the kingdom several times and trained Saudi personnel both in the Gulf and in Pakistan.

A region on edge

Earlier this year, in June, Israel waged a 12-day war with Iran, targeting nuclear facilities as well as senior civilian and military leaders. American bomber jets supported the assault, dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, one of Iran’s key nuclear sites.

The Indian question

The defence deal will also be watched closely in India, Pakistan’s nuclear-armed archrival.

Relations between India and Pakistan, already at a historic low, plummeted further in April after the Pahalgam attack, in which gunmen killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir, for which India blamed Pakistan, which the latter rejected.

Pakistan’s nuclear shield over Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia has long expressed interest in acquiring nuclear technology for civilian use, to diversify from fossil fuels.

In January, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud reiterated Riyadh’s readiness to enrich and sell uranium, a key component of nuclear programmes.

But Saudi Arabia has also repeatedly made clear that it does not seek to pursue nuclear weapons.