Trump’s 50-day shift on Ukraine is a big deal — but probably not for Putin

New developments Tuesday reinforced the idea that President Donald Trump has significantly shifted his view of the Ukraine war.

But his short time horizons and lack of specificity on what exactly he will do for Ukraine, which are hallmarks of his leadership, mean the most critical factor preventing an end to the conflict will remain unchanged. There is little reason to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will change his own calculations on a war he sees as a historic imperative and that may be existential for him politically.

Still, some things have undeniably changed.

Ukraine faces the possibility of losing territory to a Russian summer offensive and more horror that civilians must bear. But diplomatically, it’s in a more favorable position with the Trump administration than anyone could have dared hope when President Volodymyr Zelensky got an Oval Office dressing-down in February. That means its hopes of surviving as an independent, sovereign state have improved.

Trump’s hostility toward Kyiv and misgivings about pumping US aid into a World War I-style quagmire might mostly be motivated by his dismay that Putin snubbed his peace plans, which were slanted toward the Kremlin.

But he at least has now shed some misconceptions that by force of personality alone he can bend Putin to his will. And by promising Patriot missiles to Kyiv — which Trump said on Tuesday are “already being shipped” — and being open to a new Russia sanctions push in Congress, he’s added steel to American peacemaking.

Trying to coerce Putin to the table may not work either. But at least Trump isn’t giving Ukraine away.

How long will Trump’s new outlook last?

It would be unwise to assume Trump’s estrangement with Putin is permanent.

His anger seems mostly born of disappointment that Putin has not delivered him a win with a peace deal that might yield a Nobel Prize rather than any deep sentimental or geopolitical concern for the implications of abandoning Ukraine.

And, as usual, the president has tempered previous vehement criticism of the Russian leader. After slamming Putin’s “bullsh*t” last week, Trump on Monday told the BBC: “I’m not done with him.”

Trump is transactional, operates in short windows of time and constantly seeks to land minor wins he can highlight. So, if he turned around and said he was meeting Putin in a summit next month or got mad at a new perceived slight from Zelensky, no one would be surprised.

“My concern here is that Donald Trump has the ability to be swayed very quickly,” said Sabrina Singh, a former Pentagon deputy press secretary who is now a wNN global affairs commentator.

NATO basks in Trump’s rare praise

Trump’s new tolerance and even appreciation for NATO follows genuine fears that his new term might trigger the political earthquake of a US withdrawal.

Credit goes to quiet diplomacy by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who’ve worked on Trump and counseled Zelensky on how to approach the US in recent months.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, meanwhile, choreographed an alliance summit in the Netherlands last month that delivered a political triumph for the president. An agreement that NATO states would spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 allowed Trump to argue he’d forced Europe to get serious about protecting itself and alleviating the burden on the US.

Alongside Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump praised Europe’s spirit for the war in Ukraine, adding, “Ultimately, having a strong Europe is a very good thing — it’s a very good thing.”

Now, NATO has solved another political problem for the president. It’s effectively being used as a front for him to send Patriot missiles to Kyiv. European nations are sending the batteries to Kyiv, after which US NATO allies will buy replacements from the US.