Is Trump any closer to an Iran exit strategy?

President Donald Trump appears increasingly interested in finding an off-ramp with Iran, or what he calls “winding down” the war. But his exit strategy is unclear – and Trump’s mixed messaging suggests he’s still undecided about what would work best: ramping up the conflict to try to end it as quickly as possible, or pushing for a negotiated settlement with Tehran.

On Tuesday, Trump signalled the US may pursue both strategies at once. In a matter of hours, the Pentagon ordered ground troops to Iran, and US negotiators sent the Iranian regime a new 15-point peace plan. By Wednesday, the White House was urging Iran to accept the deal while threatening to hit the country harder than ever if it didn’t, stoking further confusion about Trump’s intentions.

“President Trump does not bluff, and he is prepared to unleash hell,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters. “Iran should not miscalculate again.”

Iran responded by rejecting the peace proposal, sparking questions about whether the two countries were actually engaged in serious diplomatic talks. The head-spinning developments typified Trump’s approach to a war that has engulfed the Middle East, roiled the global economy, and driven a wedge between different factions of the Republican Party.

White House officials insist the US is dictating the course of events in Iran. But Iran’s rejection of the peace plan underscored the reality that Trump can’t fully control the direction of the conflict.

As the war escalates, there’s growing concern inside the administration that Trump doesn’t have a concrete plan for what comes next, according to former US officials and outside allies close to the White House, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“They’re very uneasy because it’s clear that Trump hasn’t thought through all of this,” said a former senior administration official who served under Trump in his first term in office, and who asked not to be named.

Beyond Trump’s broader war aims, it’s an open question how the US can secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas exports. More than three weeks into the war, the US still has no answer for stopping Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the waterway that have sent prices soaring – and so far Trump’s calls for Nato allies and others to help have gone unheeded.