Europeans fear being a footnote in history as Putin looks to strike deal with Trump

Not for the first time, European capitals are gripped with apprehension that Russian President Vladimir Putin will surgically divide the transatlantic alliance as well as get everything he wants in Ukraine.

Ahead of the suddenly announced summit in Alaska on Friday between Putin and US President Donald Trump, one European diplomat, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak on the record, “We are at risk of being a footnote in history.”

Trump himself said after Witkoff left Moscow: “It’s very complicated. We’re going to get some back, we’re going to get some switched. There will be some swapping of territories, to the betterment of both.”

“There is no sense in Paris, Berlin or London that seizing someone else’s territory matters to this US administration, and the (Europeans) find that deeply disturbing,” said the diplomat.

The UK, France, Germany, Italy and the EU felt obliged to say in a joint statement Saturday: “We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force.” Poland and Finland also signed the statement.

They spent much of the day making the case to US Vice President JD Vance, who was about to start a vacation in the UK, and trying to get clarity on what would be negotiated.

The “Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington DC-based think-tank.

There is one thread common to all versions: that Putin will demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk region they still hold. This would include substantial cities: Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka.

“Conceding to such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014,” noted ISW, exposing Ukraine to further aggression down the line.

Mick Ryan, who tracks the Ukrainian conflict in his Futura Doctrina blog, said Sunday that “Ukraine, more than anyone, understands that ceded territory would then be used as the launch pad for future Russian aggression.”

The parallels with the Munich Agreement between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler in 1938 are striking. Even after the Nazis invaded Czechoslovakia, Chamberlain said he had been assured by Hitler: “This is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe.”

Unknown: whether Putin will persist in his demand that Russia also be ceded control of two other Ukrainian regions – Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – whose regional capitals are still in Ukrainian hands. Or whether he would accept a freeze along the current frontlines in these regions, part of which run through open countryside and would be difficult to monitor.

It’s also unclear whether Putin will demand Ukraine recognize Moscow’s sovereignty over Crimea – and if so, what he might offer in return. Zelensky has already pointed out that the Ukrainian constitution prevents giving up any of its territory.

The European leaders said in a statement Saturday that there must be “robust and credible security guarantees that enable Ukraine to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

But experience suggests the Europeans may be whistling in the wind, for all their efforts to flatter and pacify Trump.

“Since his inauguration in January, the Europeans have bought unlimited passes for the Trump roller coaster ride. They have climbed on, strapped themselves in, and regularly screamed out in terror but failed to get off,” said Rym Momtaz at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington DC-based think tank.